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Observers from the CIS-EMO suggested to their colleagues to learn math

A mathematical model for evaluating the legitimacy of the electoral process in Ukraine was presented by the international monitoring mission of CIS-EMO in Kiev hotel "Hyatt". According to observers, their colleagues must move from the emotional-evaluative assessments of elections to the language of numbers and accurate data.

The essence of the presented method, according to the member of the CIS-EMO mission, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Professor Arthur Belov, is as follows: after the elections the mission will in electronic form receive from the Ukrainian CEC the summary data on the final protocols at the polls. These data provide information on the number of registered voters, turnout and voting results both for single-mandate candidates and parties. Using its unique methodology the CIS-EMO mission identifies "abnormal" polling stations and constituencies, then imposes on the resulting "map" the collected by the mission information on violations, and then determines their impact on the choice made by voters.

"To address this challenging task used the expert estimates obtained with the delphi-method, the method of brainstorming and the method of synectics", - said the coordinator of the CIS-EMO mission Dmitry Efimov. – " The mathematical part is solved on the basis of cluster analysis, statistical functions and the Pearson's chi-squared test, which are implemented in the mathematical package SPSS Statistics. To collect, store and analyze the information on violations registered by the mission the program Microsoft Access is used ", - explained D. Efimov.

The International observers are convinced that the shift from the emotional-evaluative judgments about legitimacy of the elections towards the use of rigorous mathematical methods will not only promote mutual understanding between different missions, but also will favorably influence the democratic process in the country. "There is a rule: if you criticize – then you are to suggest. We used this rule and developed the open mathematical method by means of which every interested person can check the voting results for possible fraud", - said in conclusion the director of CIS-EMO Alexey Kochetkov.

Let us recall that the International organisation of election observation CIS-EMO is monitoring the election process in Ukraine from the first of August to the present. During this time the mission has published two open reports on the situation in the country.

Observers from the CIS-EMO suggested to their colleagues to learn math
Observers from the CIS-EMO suggested to their colleagues to learn math

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